The California Avocado Commission (CAC) recently reported the results of their mid-season crop update surveys with their growers and handlers, forecasting a smaller crop than was initially expected. Through use of grower and handler surveys, CAC is able to collect the most up-to-date volume information and anticipated harvest timing. The results are used to inform the industry of the total crop that is expected to come to market and as a guide that helps shape the timing of CAC’s marketing efforts.
The results forecast a 2022 California crop estimate a 286 million pounds – which consists of 272 million pounds Hass, 8 million pounds Lamb-Hass, 5 million pounds GEM and 1 million pounds of other varieties. This updated volume is a 20-million-pound reduction from the December 2021 handler pre-season estimate of 306 million pounds. The decrease in volume mostly comes from Hass (19 million pounds), however a slight reduction to the Lamb-Hass volume also has been made (1 million pounds).
Detailed results from the grower and handler survey can be found on CAC’s grower website, as well as revised monthly and weekly harvest projections based on the 286-million-pound crop volume. Please note that projected volume for the beginning of the season, which has already been harvested, does not match weekly actuals, but instead how the four-year average and handler forecasting models projecting a 286-million-pound crop would have come to market (based on the actual monthly volume that was harvested). As we move through the season, Commission staff will continue to track crop harvest and remaining volume closely, ensuring that CAC’s marketing efforts are aligned with when California fruit is in season.